#wish I knew then

We have all heard this expression that implies that had a person known earlier in life what they know now, they would have done things differently.  The subject possibilities are endless   While no one has a crystal ball to see into the future, it may be possible to learn from people who have experienced similar situations.

In the late sixties, mortgage rates hit 8.5% but before the decade had finished, the rates had come down to 7% where they stayed for some time.  Homeowners who purchased at the higher rate, could buy a larger, more expensive home for the same payment if they could get out from under the obligation of their existing mortgage.

FHA and VA mortgages, up until the late 80's, could be assumed by anyone, regardless of credit worthiness.  Since these homes were purchased one or two years earlier, the sellers didn't really have much equity in them, and many homeowners were willing to "give" them to investors so they could qualify on a new, lower rate mortgage.

It was a fantastic opportunity for investors who could afford the negative cash flow because the homes wouldn't rent for the payment.  As the 70's economy, started heating up, so did inflation.  Most people consider inflation an undesirable thing but for people who owned rental property, it meant the values were going up and so were the rents.

Soon, the rentals no longer had negative cash flows and the investments turned the corner.  If you talk to investors who purchased those homes during that period, you'll very likely hear, "I should have bought more of them."

If we could fast forward into the future to see how people will be talking about the period we're currently in, we might see an even greater opportunity in our present time.  Interest and mortgage rates have been on a downward trend for thirty years.  In the past ten years, they hit an historic low.  They are trending up currently and it appears they will continue to do so.

Homes are in short supply which has caused the prices to go up.  Builders haven't returned to the number of new units needed to meet demand and that has been going on for over ten years.  Even when the supply does increase, it will take a long time to catch up with demand.

Combine that with supply chain shortages due to the pandemic and prices look like they are unaffordable.  Many millennials and some Gen Xers believe the "window of opportunity" has closed. 

For tenants, rents are continuing to increase due to the same causes that home prices are increasing.  Buyers, by acting now, can lock in their mortgage rate and the purchase price of the home.  As prices continue to increase and the amortization of the mortgage pays down the unpaid balance, homeowners' equity increases and so does their net worth.

Unfortunately, for tenants, the rents will continue to rise, along with prices which will make it more difficult in the future to purchase.  Their rent is used to pay the landlord's mortgage who benefits in the principal reduction for each payment made.

The market is changing and people who don't own a home currently must find a way to buy one.  The longer they wait, the harder it will be to buy one.

People wanting to purchase a home in today's market must educate themselves with facts and not hearsay.  There are all sorts of programs available to address low down payments, varieties of mortgages, credit issues and other things.  

It starts by meeting with a real estate professional who can recommend a trusted mortgage professional.  Download our Buyers Guide and check out your numbers using the Rent vs. Own.

Your Home is a Hedge Against Inflation

The concern about inflation is the sustained upward movement in the overall price of goods and services while the purchasing value of money decreases.  Tangible assets like your home consistently become more valuable over time.  In inflationary periods, your home is a good investment and a hedge against inflation.

Money in the bank loses purchasing power due to inflation and the interest you may be earning is almost always less than inflation.

Home prices are going up but so is rent.  With mortgage rates near historic lows, the interest is, generally, less than the appreciation the property is enjoying.  Combine this with the leverage that occurs using borrowed funds to control an asset and your equity is most likely, growing at a faster rate than inflation.

A 90% mortgage at 3.5% for 30-years on a $400,000 home that appreciates at 4% a year will have an estimated equity of $220,000 in seven years due to appreciation and amortization.  That is a 27.5% annual rate of return on the down payment.  That is a significant hedge against a current inflation of 4%.

If a person were to put that same $40,000 in a certificate of deposit that earned 2%, it would be worth only $45,947 in seven years.  If it was invested in the stock market that earned 7% annually, the $40,000 would grow to $64,231.  The equity in the example for the home would be almost 3.5 times larger.

The assets that are considered to be good bets against inflation include some bonds, gold and other commodities and real estate.  Another distinct advantage of investing in a home is that you would be able to live there with your family and enjoy it which is not possible with bonds and commodities.  

There are certainly other considerations in a comparison like this such as maintenance, but it could be offset, at least partially, by the cost of housing being less than you would be paying for comparable rent.  And with the shortage of rental units available, the rent will certainly continue to increase annually where your housing costs are fixed with the exceptions of increases in property taxes and insurance.